By David Morgan
WASHINGTON, Jan 31 (Reuters) - Just months after President
Barack Obama's re-election ended Republican hopes of controlling
U.S. healthcare policy, one of the most controversial Republican
proposals for Medicare is showing signs of rising from the
political ashes.
Premium support, a policy idea that would greatly expand the
role of private insurers in providing Medicare coverage for
hospital and doctor services, was considered dead soon after
Republican Mitt Romney's November loss to Obama, when polls
showed registered voters rejecting it by 2-to-1 margins.
But premium support is gaining fresh momentum among
congressional Republicans as a way to control Medicare spending
as the debate rages over entitlement reform and the deficit, say
analysts, lobbyists and congressional aides.
"It's an idea that becomes more politically seaworthy with
every passing day, because there are no other legitimate
alternatives that can simultaneously control costs in a rational
fashion and broaden access to quality care," said Robert Moffitt
of the conservative Heritage Foundation.
U.S. Rep. Paul Ryan, Romney's former running mate and the
Republican most identified with premium support, is expected to
embrace the policy for a third consecutive year in the budget he
will soon release as chairman of the House Budget Committee.
A spokesman for the Wisconsin congressman declined to
discuss the budget. But others with knowledge of closed-door
discussions said the party's caucus would not back down after
retaining support among elderly voters in 2012, despite
Democratic attacks on the Republicans' Medicare position.
"They feel like they won the premium-support battle last
year. So they're not at all shy about taking that on again,"
said a lobbyist with strong Republican ties.
Democrats are likely to reject the idea again. Many doubt
the premium-support model can control spending, and charge that
it would instead privatize the $590 billion-a-year Medicare
program that serves 50 million elderly and disabled Americans.
With Congress now looking set to accept $1.2 trillion in
automatic "sequester" spending cuts as deficit reduction,
including a 2 percent across-the-board cut for Medicare, some
congressional aides say the entitlement debate over Medicare,
Social Security and Medicaid could be delayed for months.
"The sequester doesn't solve the deficit problem. But if it
went through, for some time, there'd be no incentive to bend
over backwards on entitlements," said a Senate Democratic aide.
DEAR PRUDENCE
Lobbyists say Republicans could still push for entitlement
reform in March, when Democrats will need their cooperation to
keep the federal government open, or during the summer when debt
limit debate may resurface. Much hangs on the contents of the
budget proposals that emerge from Obama, Ryan and the Senate
Budget Committee within the next month or two.
Republican aides say premium support could gain ground in
the cut and thrust of future negotiations, given word that
Democrats plan to take a hard line against raising the Medicare
eligibility age to 67 from 65 - another Republican policy goal
that appears to have been thwarted by pressure from influential
beneficiary groups, including AARP.
But Democratic aides counter that there will be no major
changes to Medicare without Republican support for new tax
revenue, an idea Republicans roundly reject.
Ryan himself sounds less interested in short-term deals than
in awaiting the next Republican swing of the political pendulum.
"I'll advance reforms to protect and strengthen Medicare and
Medicaid, to reform healthcare," Ryan said in a speech to the
National Review Institute on Jan. 26 in which he recommended a
path of political prudence for conservatives.
"Guess what? The Democrats are unlikely to accept our
proposals. I know that may come as a big surprise to you. They
refuse to consider real reform that's needed to get the country
on the right track. But we will lay the groundwork for future
endeavors. So when reform is possible, we will be ready."
A potential way to move the premium-support model forward
emerged in the Senate last week, analysts say, when Senator
Orrin Hatch proposed consolidating Medicare's Part A hospital
and Part B physician benefits into a single program that would
allow private insurers to bid against traditional Medicare and
reward seniors for choosing cheaper coverage.
"By allowing private health plans to compete with
traditional fee-for-service Medicare, we can provide seniors
with their guaranteed Medicare benefit while, at the same time,
reducing costs and improving the quality of care," Hatch, a Utah
Republican, said on the floor of the Senate.
"Hatch is trying one more time to get the point across that
most people agree with - that you're going to cover Medicare A
and B without any question," said Joseph Antos of the
conservative American Enterprise Institute. "This is something
Ryan certainly meant but it didn't come out that way."
In fact, analysts and business lobbyists said Hatch could
offer a way forward for Republican rhetoric by focusing his
remarks on competition and consumer choice, and drawing
parallels between his proposal and Medicare Part D, the popular
prescription drug benefit that also employs competitive bidding
to set costs.
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